How Worried Should We Be?

United and American are seeing weakness in D.C., but is this an isolated problem? Also in today's newsletter: musings on Canada, ULCCs, Southwest, Scott Kirby, and the quirkiness of network planners.

Dear readers,

I’m monitoring slippage in demand around Washington, D.C. and possibly from Canada to the United States, and wondering if we soon may see weakness elsewhere. I also have thoughts (after my trip on Frontier) about why U.S. ULCCs are in such trouble. And I’ll touch again on Southwest’s recent layoffs, which I continue to think won’t hurt the airline as much as conventional wisdom expects. I’ll warn you: even by my standards, today’s post is heavy on negativity.

But it’s not all gloom and doom. I’ll share with you some thoughts on why I think network planners are the quirkiest, most intense and most competitive people in the airline industry. And I’ll relay a promise that I made to a very senior airline executive about how I’ll hold Scott Kirby accountable if his thesis about the airline industry ends up being wrong.

Let's get into it.