Will Frontier Turn Things Around in 2026?
I think it's possible. While Spirit's demise is one reason I am optimistic, I have others, too.
Dear readers,
As a glass-half-empty kind of guy, sometimes I wonder how successful my career might be if I had Frontier CEO Barry Biffle’s wildly optimistic disposition. No matter the lumps his airline takes — like rising costs, ruthless competition from legacy airlines, and softness in economy class travel — Biffle confidently talks about how the lowest cost always wins, and how Frontier soon will return to double-digit margins. But, I am who I am, and I don’t think I’ve been wrong to poke at Biffle’s happy talk, even if my dour outlook may scare off some would-be subscribers.
In my defense, there really hasn’t been much good news at Frontier. The stock price is hovering below $4 — more than $15 below its 2021 IPO price — as Frontier has struggled amid fierce competition with larger airlines that have the network and product that today’s passengers want.1 In the third quarter, Frontier lost $77 million on total revenues of $886 million.
But as Biffle spoke Wednesday on Frontier’s third quarter earnings call, I agreed with most of his optimistic take about the future. I don’t know that double-digit margins are just around the corner, as Biffle often claims, but I like Frontier’s plans for 2026.
Most obviously, its top competitor is shrinking. But there’s more, too. And for the first time in a long time, I think Biffle has a plausible thesis.